Global Markets Update What will Fed tightening mean for EM dollar bonds? Although emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds yields have fallen during the past two bouts of US monetary tightening, this time around we expect them to rise as aggressive rate... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be unchanged despite króna’s fall The króna has depreciated fairly sharply since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met. But given our expectation that it will rise again, we do not think the Bank will respond to recent currency... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight rise in consumer confidence in January leaves it at its highest level in over three years. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations were broadly unchanged last month. 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) The surge in the trade surplus to a record high in December shows that the rise in commodity prices is boosting the economy and it has dramatically reduced the chances that Australia fell into a... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How bad will the fallout be from a US border tax? If the US introduces an across-the-board tariff or border adjustment tax, world trade would not com to a standstill. We suspect that other governments would tread carefully before ratcheting up a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Steady labour market recovery continues Recent data on the euro-zone’s labour market have been encouraging. December’s decline in the unemployment rate to 9.6% left it at its lowest since May 2009. We expect the labour market recovery to... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys published by Markit earlier today point to a broad-based pick-up in growth at the beginning of the year, with advanced economies in particular gaining momentum. They also signal a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose by more than expected last week. But the focus remains on OPEC. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.0 in January, from 54.5, confirms that the manufacturing recovery has continued into the New Year, and also suggests that GDP growth is set to rebound in... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI to a seven-month low in January is disappointing. But with more reliable surveys, as well as the hard data, showing an improvement, we don’t think it signals a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling’s strength against the dollar is unlikely to last 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How worried should we be about inflation? Sterling’s post-referendum fall has clearly put inflation on a steep upward trajectory this year. But there are reasons to think that the forthcoming rise in CPI inflation won’t be too great and that... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2016) The preliminary estimate of Russian 2016 GDP, which showed a small contraction of 0.2% over the year as a whole, was a bit better than expected and is consistent with the idea that the economy... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices rental growth to disappoint in 2017 An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5%... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
