Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to a 70-month high suggests that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a positive note. 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators in Central and Eastern Europe suggest that most economies in the region made a strong start to this year. In particular, today’s data support our view that... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Metals to take a breather in 2017 While we had always been positive on the outlook for metals in 2016, even we were surprised by the scale of the rally. Indeed, we are now concerned that the prevailing optimism about demand for... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected and suggest our forecast of a 0.2% q/q rise in consumer spending last quarter appears too optimistic. At this stage a fall of around 0.5% q/q... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: private sector deleveraging has further to run Private sector debt deleveraging in Brazil gathered pace over the second half of last year. But while credit conditions will remain extremely tight this year, there are at least signs that broader... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government gets the ball rolling on Brexit bill While the Supreme Court decision won’t prevent Brexit from happening, it has perhaps increased the chance that Theresa May’s timeline for triggering Article 50 will slip and/or that there could be... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrials continue to do well The prices of the more industrial commodities generally fared better this week, with a few notable exceptions in nickel and palladium. Optimism about demand continues to support prices. Indeed, this... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA on the brink Canada has a strong hand to play in the upcoming negotiations over the NAFTA agreement. With Canadian-US trade broadly balanced and the US reliant on Canadian energy exports, we suspect that the Trump... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still in cross-hairs over trade China’s current account surplus is no longer unusually large. But its surplus in traded goods is substantial, particularly relative to the size of the global economy, and the bilateral imbalance with... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should US shareholders be worried about Trump’s view of Mexico? 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The recent strength of the US dollar has prompted several questions from clients about dollar debt burdens in emerging economies. In this Update, we outline the key points and provide a comprehensive... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy robust as election contests take shape Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a pretty strong footing. January’s Composite PMI remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, while the rise... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) We would be wary of reading too much into the slowdown in GDP growth from 3.5% annualised in the third quarter to 1.9% in the fourth, because the temporary spike in soybean exports boosted the former... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
