China Economics Update Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls The renminbi appreciated against the US currency this month for the first time since October, helped by a tightening of capital controls. But in trade-weighted terms, the Chinese currency has been... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures showed that demand has continued to return to the housing market, following a lull around the referendum, but that consumer credit growth slowed for the first... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) At £494m in December, the rise in net lending to commercial property almost fully reversed the previous two months’ falls. But with the both the investment and development market giving mixed signals... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Unemployment (Dec.) & Flash CPI (Jan.) The latest data revealing that euro-zone GDP ended 2016 on a positive note and that inflation rose sharply in January will give the ECB food for thought, but we still expect the Bank to be buying... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey really now a high-investment economy? The large upwards revisions to Turkey’s investment rate don’t mean the economy’s growth prospects are now much stronger. The changes mainly appear to reflect the country’s residential property boom... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.) Provisional data revealed that the French economy performed fairly well in Q4, while inflation picked up in January. But uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential election looks set to... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite concerns about the economic outlook, consumer confidence strengthened in January and the details of the survey provide another reason to think that the likely slowdown in spending growth this... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon The BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and lifted its GDP forecasts for the next two years. Even though we expect inflation to approach the 2% inflation target next year, we doubt that the Bank... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending & Unemployment (Dec.) While today’s release on household spending suggests private consumption may have weakened in the fourth quarter, better-than-expected industrial production in December is consistent with a continued... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets Financial conditions in Mexico have tightened over recent months, partly reflecting the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to the falls in the peso. But there are no signs yet... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growth in prime Spanish office rents to slow further A slowdown in Spanish economic activity and rising office developments are set to weigh on prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid over the coming years. Nonetheless, growth in both cities... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook BTL to slow growth in mortgage approvals While the housing market ended 2016 in reasonable shape, house price growth has been losing steam. With prices already so high, we expect that trend to continue, with annual house price growth ending... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed, not BoJ, policy likely to be key driver of the yen and Nikkei 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon The recent decline in Saudi interbank rates reflects fading fears that the riyal will be devalued and easing liquidity shortages in the banking system. We still expect Saudi interbank rates to rise... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 1.9% reflected energy effects while core inflation remained subdued. Price pressures are weaker elsewhere in the euro-zone and there is still... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) Chilean activity data for December were relatively encouraging, but it still looks like GDP may have contracted in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms between Q3 and Q4. As such, the central bank is likely... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
