Frontier Markets Wrap Big frontiers eye up more international bond sales 2016 was a bumper year for dollar bond sales from frontier markets and the recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted a number of countries to consider returning to international markets... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth ended 2016 on a high, outlook quite good We estimate that world GDP growth was unchanged in Q4 last year at around 3½% annualised. This is well below its pre-crisis average, but is fairly rapid by more recent standards. What’s more, we... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) Case-Shiller reported that average US house prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, continuing the recent trend of significant gains. With housing demand rising on the back of Trump’s win, and inventory... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Agricultural prices to come under pressure in 2017 For the most part, the prices of agricultural commodities in US dollar terms rose in 2016, owing to a combination of weather-related supply disruptions, rising oil prices and some weakness in the US... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets right to be taking President Trump in their stride? Investors have turned a blind eye to the controversy and chaos that has characterised President Trump’s first ten days in the White House. Such indifference may prove to be complacent. The longer his... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update President Trump: What we’ve learned so far Despite the chaos of the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency, financial markets have so far been remarkably unperturbed. But if Trump’s incendiary executive orders damage the prospects of more... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Mexican GDP grew by a respectable 0.6% q/q in Q4, down from +1.0% q/q in Q3, and, while tighter monetary policy and the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy mean growth is set to soften further... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m increase in November GDP was broad-based, with manufacturing, mining, construction, retail and finance all recording solid gains. The only negatives were a weather-related 3.0% m/m... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian financial markets make good start to 2017 Asian currencies have rebounded against the US dollar over the past month, with the Korean won leading the way. For the most part, the recent gains reflect a weak dollar, which has fallen in value... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs The sharp fall in the Turkish lira already this year, and the disappointing response by the central bank, have prompted us to revise our currency forecast down. We now see it ending the year at 4.00/$... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start Relations between President Trump and Mexico have got off to an inauspicious start, with spats over the renegotiation of NAFTA, border taxes and, of course, the Wall. From the point of view of Mexico... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The growth of lending for house purchase has cooled somewhat over the last couple of months. The breakdown of the data suggest that is primarily due to lower lending to BTL investors. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Will the oil market rebalance in 2017? There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
