Europe Economics Update Will Germany address its “grossly undervalued” currency? The accusation by US policymakers that Germany’s currency is “grossly undervalued” is partly justified. Indeed, while the euro’s current low level seems warranted by economic fundamentals in the... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The larger-than-expected 2.3% m/m surge in Brazilian industrial production in December was due almost entirely to an increase in vehicle production, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities keep their cool Commodity prices were remarkably stable in January, considering the flurry of executive orders by the new US president, Donald Trump. Data showing that China ended 2016 on a strong note was a key... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) Although price pressures are building rapidly, January’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests the sector started the year on a stronger footing. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) House price growth continued its downward trend at the start of the year. We expect this to continue during 2017, as buyers become increasingly constrained by the very high level of prices. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The significant improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is a rare positive surprise. But given the measure’s mixed performance in recent months, we will wait for more data before seriously... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors made an impressive start to the year. The surveys suggest that industrial production growth in Central Europe... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs add to the evidence that the Swedish economy has made a strong start to the year. They also suggest that price pressures are building in Switzerland. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY17/18 budget: slower pace of consolidation The finance ministry faced a delicate balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY17/18 as it aimed to boost demand while also demonstrating its commitment to fiscal prudence. Given this, it is... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in January is an early sign that the worst of the impact on activity from demonetisation may be over. Looking ahead, local manufacturers should gradually recover... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets eye up interest rate hike in 2018 With all eyes on sterling, one somewhat overlooked development over the past month has been the increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates. Indeed, on the basis of overnight indexed... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) After reaching a 50-year low in mid-2016, the homeownership rate edged up for the second consecutive time in the final quarter. A lack of inventory is preventing a faster rebound in homeownership... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January brings the index a little closer in line with other measures of confidence, and still leaves it consistent with... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies make a strong start to the year The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
