Global Central Bank Watch Era of global QE not over yet The widespread pick-up in activity and rebound in inflation in advanced economies during recent months has reduced the pressure for central banks to ease policy further. But only in the US do we... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q4’s growth deals another blow to project fear The solid 0.6% expansion in UK GDP in the fourth quarter of last year provided further evidence that the vote to leave the European Union has so far had little discernible adverse effect on the UK... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Subdued outlook for Scottish house prices Stagnating employment growth combined with relatively loose supply conditions appear to be keeping Scottish house price growth in check. Throw in low oil prices and concerns about the impact of Brexit... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bonds & Equities What does history tell us about interest rates and the dollar? We expect the dollar to regain the ground it has lost this year and to strengthen further, as interest rates and bond yields in the US climb by more than investors are anticipating. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Despite falling in January, the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator is consistent with an acceleration in annual GDP growth to about 6%. As such, underlying price pressures should pick up and the... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s current account surplus is a sign of weakness Large current account surpluses are sometimes a sign of economic strength. In the case of Thailand, however, where the surplus is over 10% of GDP, it is a symptom of a deeply depressed economy. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Both headline and underlying inflation weakened in December as the lingering effects of last year’s strengthening of the yen lowered goods prices. But with the yen having weakened markedly in recent... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch A less challenging trade-off The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a less challenging trade-off between supporting the economy and controlling inflation. It will probably upgrade the growth projections in its Inflation Report... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push up inflation in most, but not all, EMs A pick-up in fuel price inflation is set to push up headline inflation in many EMs over the coming months. But this is not true across the board. In some countries, including Brazil and Russia, any... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Optimism prevails, for now For the most part, commodity prices have started the year strongly, buoyed by persistent optimism about demand and some weakness in the US dollar. However, we are concerned that, in some cases, prices... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales fell further than expected in December, ending 2016 on something of a weak note. But the monthly data are very volatile. And with mortgage applications rising, and housing starts set to... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is this the start of a bear market in euro-zone government bonds? 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Appetite for mainland European property remains strong Commercial property investment across Europe fell last year for the first time since 2009, driven by a large decline in the UK. Yet increased investment in Europe ex-UK and upbeat investor sentiment... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
