Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jan.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growth in the world’s largest advanced economies started the year on a positive note. As such, they do nothing to change our view... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year The Hungarian MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged earlier today and the accompanying statement remained dovish in spite of a jump in inflation at the end of 2016. Looking ahead, with growth... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the dollar really “very, very strong”? The dollar has ceded ground recently amid speculation that the Trump administration will seek to bring it down. Indeed, the new president’s nomination for Secretary of the Treasury has reportedly... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB sounds inflation warning The hawkish statement by the South African MPC today is likely to focus attention in the markets on the possibility of rate hikes over the coming months. However, while inflation will remain well... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Nov./Dec.) China’s refinery output continued to grow in December, encouraged by higher prices and signs of a more general revival in the economy. However, we think optimism about demand will fade over the course... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth surges to fastest in over three years The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated for a ninth consecutive month in December to the fastest in more than three years. For the first time since 2011, our... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s interest rate hike by the Turkish central bank was just large enough to buy support for the lira, but we think further hikes in the key policy rates will, ultimately, be needed in the coming... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) The improvement in the public finances in December means that borrowing in the current fiscal year should be slightly below the OBR’s November forecasts. And we think stronger GDP growth will result... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the Supreme Court decision matter? Today’s decision by the Supreme Court to uphold the High Court’s ruling that the Government must have Parliament’s approval before triggering Article 50 is still significant. In fact, arguably, the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) Despite January’s fall, the euro-zone PMI suggests that the economy continued to expand at a steady pace at the start of 2017. But the survey still points to a lack of inflationary pressure, which... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to Asia? The demise of the TPP represents a major blow to some countries in Emerging Asia, most notably Vietnam. The benefits of any China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Capital raising down in 2016, but far from out On the surface, lower levels of fund-raising in 2016 hint at concerns about pricing at this stage of the cycle. However, in light of tough competition for prime assets and a heightened perception of... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Focus turns to policy tightening The sharp fall in the Turkish lira has forced the central bank to tinker with its monetary policy setup in an effort to shore up the currency, and we think hikes in key policy interest rates loom... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Japan’s economic recovery picked up pace at the start of the year. What’s more, the weaker yen is fuelling price pressures. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
