Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both oil and gasoline rose last week as demand slumped. Gasoline demand has been negatively impacted by higher prices and colder weather. 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Near-term recovery for EM export growth, but threats ahead EM export growth increased towards the end of 2016, but this was mainly due to base effects rather than strengthening demand. While a further pick-up is likely in the near term, EM export growth is... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reconsidering the threat to global trade from Trump On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, we still have little detail on what trade policies he will pursue. Here we set out the potential global impact of the various measures he and his team have... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise? We think it is most likely that the Czech MPC will remove the koruna ceiling at its meeting on 4th May. Following this, we are forecasting that the koruna will appreciate to 25.5/€ from 27/€ at... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) December’s jump in housing starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, implying that homebuilding activity may not be quite as buoyant as it initially seems. But single-family permits... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy was on an improving trends towards the end of last year. But we expect growth to be slower this year compared with 2016 as weakness in the oil sector... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The bankers’ bluff The prospect of financial institutions shifting jobs away from the UK poses a risk the UK economy, as well as commercial property markets. However, there are good reasons to take their threats with a... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales rebounded by an encouraging 1.5% m/m in value terms in November and 1.2% m/m in volume terms, led by gains in primary metals, petroleum goods and chemicals. Based on the already... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole came in at 2.3% y/y, down a touch from 2.5% y/y in Q3. 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Data to mid-January showed another larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation and, barring a sustained slide in the real, we think COPOM is likely to cut the Selic interest rate by another 75bp... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep interest rates unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and with inflation set to rise later in the year and the currency likely to come under renewed downward pressure as the Fed continues... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Producer & Import Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in Swiss producer and import price inflation does not change our view that headline consumer price inflation will be barely positive in the medium term. Accordingly, monetary policy... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
