Africa Economics Update South Africa: retail spending a bright spot, but economy weak South Africa’s surprisingly strong retail sales figures for November provided a rare piece of good news, but the economy remains extremely weak. And there’s still a significant chance that GDP... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Nov.) Despite marking a second consecutive contraction in job creation, today’s figures were not all bad for property. With part-time and self-employed jobs bearing the brunt of the falls, and forward... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some of its shine, it remains resilient despite Brexit uncertainty. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged in January, which was a disappointing result given that local equity prices have recently risen rapidly. That said, confidence... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017 Market expectations have moved steadily towards our more dovish view on the outlook for inflation and interest rates in Brazil this year. But our forecast for growth in 2017 is still above the... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Six key takeaways from Theresa May’s Brexit plan Today’s speech by PM Theresa May, which set out the Government’s broad objectives ahead of the formal negotiations with the EU, contained little more than what was widely expected. Nonetheless, it did... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The wall will constrain, but not derail, housing starts As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are corporate credit spreads set to narrow in 2017? As commodity prices recovered and fears of a hard landing in China faded, corporate bonds delivered healthy returns in the US and euro-zone last year, and credit spreads narrowed. However, as the bull... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Nov.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in November, with all metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) While the UK house price index recorded a slight rise in annual house price growth in November, recent revisions to the data have brought the index more in line with other measures. This reinforces... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q4) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that optimism about the German economy is gradually returning. The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed a further pick-up in demand for loans, but... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No float for the renminbi China will need to let the renminbi float at some stage if it intends to push ahead with plans to liberalise the capital account and encourage greater international use of the currency. But, recent... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) While December’s rise in CPI inflation was greater than expected, the increase was driven by components that shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the MPC’s stance on monetary policy. 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam complacent over credit risks Policymakers in Vietnam are becoming increasingly complacent of the risks posed by the rapid build-up in debt, as reflected by the government’s recent announcement that it was targeting credit growth... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
