Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand could remain subdued in 2017 The latest data show that central banks’ holdings of gold were broadly unchanged in November. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 and this weakness could persist... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Consumer price inflation dropped again in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. A rate cut can’t be ruled out in the near term but, over the longer term, demonetisation... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector shows signs of life The rebound in South African manufacturing output in November is encouraging. But we expect that this was probably a blip rather than the beginning of a lasting acceleration. Figures released today by... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s rise in euro-zone industrial production added to the evidence that GDP growth picked up in Q4. But while industrial growth might accelerate further in the near term, this is unlikely to... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Bank lending in China jumped last month as higher bond yields encouraged firms to turn to banks rather than capital markets for funding. However, broad credit continued to slow. 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to stand pat until Trump’s plans become more clear The unexpected decline in monthly GDP in October, together with the moderation in the new measures of core CPI inflation, might have prompted the Bank of Canada to reconsider cutting interest rates at... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey showed that the outlook has deteriorated somewhat relative to current conditions. Nonetheless, the survey remains consistent with a recovery in industrial production. 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Polish MPC suggests monetary tightening is long way off Dovish comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference suggest that the MPC is as focused on growth as it is on inflation. We continue to think... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks swelled last week as production and imports surged. Gasoline stocks also grew as refinery runs increased, but demand remained subdued. 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
