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Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up

Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect policymakers to resume tightening policy later this year. Our forecast is for the policy interest rate to rise to 4.75% by year-end, which is significantly above consensus expectations.

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