Latin America Economics Update Whither the real? The key driver of the Brazilian real over the past couple of years has been fluctuations in the price of the country’s commodity exports. Accordingly, our view that the price of Brazil’s main... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth on the rise Housing demand was given a short-term boost following Trump’s win, as some buyers brought forward a planned purchase in order to secure a low mortgage rate before they increased further. But with the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will European equities outperform their counterparts in the US? 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y in December and looks set to breach the upper-bound of the central bank’s 2-4% target range as soon as this month as a result of rising domestic fuel prices... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government remains reluctant to spend The budget for the coming fiscal year foresees broadly neutral rather than expansionary fiscal policy. With supplementary spending for the current fiscal year barely larger than last year’s, the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy is likely to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis this year. However, this will largely reflect weakness in the oil sector. In contrast, with austerity... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment data reaffirm our view that the labour market is experiencing only a gradual recovery. Indeed, the unemployment rate is still high, while survey indicators point to... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Extinguishing RBI’s liabilities unlikely to bring much benefit India’s government has moved to strip the legal status of banknotes affected by demonetisation that are still in circulation. This would have the result of extinguishing some of the RBI’s liabilities... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The Halifax report that house prices finished 2016 strongly. In spite of that, the big picture remains that house price growth is significantly weaker than it has been over recent years. 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s rise in German industrial production suggests that industry had a decent quarter in Q4. And with trade data also painting a positive picture of the economy, it seems likely that GDP growth... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in November reinforces the picture that while the economy probably returned to positive growth at the end of last year, the recovery... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation soft in December but set to leap Headline inflation probably fell in December. But looking ahead, we think both consumer and producer price inflation are set to jump this quarter on the back of a surge in commodity price inflation... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What is the outlook for equity markets in 2017? After a torrid start to 2016, developed market equities ended the year with a bang. But with a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle than most anticipate, growth in China set to slow and geo-political... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
