Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Total capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) remained large at the end of last year. Portfolio inflows into EM bond and equity markets, however, remained resilient following the US election... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the investment market have in store in 2017? Investment activity fell to more normal levels in 2016 and we expect 2017 to at least match it. Not only have relative yield movements made the UK look more attractive, but the economy has surprised... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Going cashless? The government’s demonetisation measures have led to a jump in card and digital transactions, but this has not been anywhere near large enough to offset the slowdown in cash spending. That said, it... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little cause for optimism on prospects for Italian retail rents A weak economy means that prime rents in the Milan and Rome retail markets are more likely to stagnate this year than to repeat 2015’s sharp increase. We have pencilled in modest increases in rental... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have we got the EMBI wrong? We doubt that the rally in emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds will last much longer, as the sell-off in US Treasuries resumes and one-off supportive factors unwind. 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened in November, but over Q4 as a whole it was probably broadly unchanged from Q3. Looking ahead, export growth might pick up, but we doubt that it will be... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to push CEE inflation higher over Q1 Higher oil prices led to sharp rises in inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the end of 2016, and this has further to run in the next few months. All in all, oil prices are likely to... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged up in y/y terms last month, but dropped in m/m terms as price discounting continued to take place following demonetisation. Nevertheless, further ahead... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed significantly in December, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) While machinery orders fell in November, their current level remains consistent with a rebound in investment spending last quarter. The rebound in capital goods shipments also suggests that business... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Volatility returns to commodity markets After a quiet start to 2016, commodity markets have sprung into life. Late in the week, comments by OPEC members that they would deepen output cuts and possibly extend them until the end of 2017... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bumpy ride for sterling The pound has suffered another bumpy ride this week, as concerns about the economic impact of a “hard Brexit” have lingered. That said, some of the positive impacts of the lower exchange rate were... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m gain in December’s retail sales appears healthy enough, but looking past the headline there are a few concerns about the strength of consumer spending. That headline gain was principally... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
