Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a strong dollar? The Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have come under further pressure over the past couple of days, but the more striking thing is how resilient other EM currencies have been in the face of a... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about rising inflation? Consumer price inflation is set to rise sharply in most advanced economies, with the US rate likely to reach around 3% by the middle of this year. However, talk of “global reflation” seems wide of the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation has further to rise Yesterday’s inflation data from Egypt made for grim reading and we think the headline rate is likely to peak at around 27% in the coming months, prompting further interest rate hikes. Price pressures... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth in Ireland to continue to outperform Prime retail rents in Dublin have topped the euro-zone league table for growth since 2014. With good consumer spending prospects and tight supply, we think that rents in the Irish capital will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ new “Theme Days” added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a decent amount of momentum in the fourth quarter, and that... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in EM growth has a bit further to run but we suspect it will lose steam during 2017 as China’s economy slows once again and recoveries in Brazil and Russia disappoint. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bright start to 2017 unlikely to last Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) December’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor revealed a strong end to the year for consumer spending. But a slowdown in spending growth looks to be in prospect this year, as higher inflation starts to weigh on... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar and fresh subsidy cuts pushed Egyptian inflation up further last month to its second-highest rate in a quarter of a century. With inflation likely to... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Dec.) In December, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation edged down to a 19- month low. We think that it will fall further, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points in the... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rebound in consumer confidence to a three-year high in December supports our view that consumer spending will be one of the driving forces of the economic recovery this year. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) While the slower-than-expected growth in retail sales in November does suggest that the household sector may have lost a bit of momentum late in the fourth quarter, the strong start to the quarter... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
