Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov) December’s rise in the European Commission’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it at its highest level since March 2011, thus supporting the message from the PMIs that GDP growth... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in 2017 – what they mean for Asia In this first Weekly of 2017, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The batch of relatively strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe in December suggests that, after a disappointing third quarter, GDP growth in the region recovered in Q4. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation pushing prices down Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. However, further ahead, demonetisation could push inflation up by leading to... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Headline wage growth remained close to zero in November and part-time wages would have to rise at a much stronger pace to generate faster gains in consumer prices. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equities to find some comfort from low valuations Emerging market (EM) equities face a tricky year, as the Fed tightens policy, Donald Trump takes office and geo-political risks blot the outlook. But while these factors probably rule out a repeat of... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude inventories plummeted last week as imports slumped. In contrast, gasoline stocks surged as demand waned. 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates Fuel inflation is set to spike in Latin America over the next few months. In most countries, this will be more than offset by the disinflationary forces caused by the stabilisation of exchange rates... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank fights back The year has started with another wave of stories about capital flooding out of China, alongside an unusually sharp strengthening of the renminbi. The currency gain over the past couple of days was... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy commodities bounce back Oil prices finished 2016 on a high as OPEC and some major non-OPEC producers agreed to cut production in the first half of this year. However, prices have already eased back in the first few days of... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price pressures to ease further in 2017 The housing market is shaping up for a subdued year in 2017. If we are right that the economy will continue to surprise on the upside, lending and sales should make further modest gains this year. But... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prices come off the boil in December The prices of most metals rose last year, but industrial metals substantially outperformed precious. While we had always been positive on the outlook for metals in 2016, even we were surprised by the... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
