China Economics Update Bond market sell-off overdone China is ending 2016 on a stronger footing economically but with growing strains in its financial markets. A slight tightening of monetary conditions has snowballed into a bond market sell-off, with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Netherlands logistics rents to rise, but only gradually Low vacancy rates and high capital values are driving high levels of logistics development in the Netherlands. Although we see potential for rents to tick up in the next few years, we do not expect... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan to resume easing cycle next year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to struggle over the coming year and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) While consumer confidence rose slightly in December, the headline balance suggests that the strong pace of retail spending won’t last too much longer. That said, low interest rates and a resilient... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to climb even further against the euro and yen We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery dependent on China The EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. According to our GDP tracker, EM GDP growth in October reached 3.5% y/y, which is the strongest since January 2015. China has been... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) The improvement in the public finances in November leaves borrowing on track to meet the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecasts for the current fiscal year. And we think stronger GDP growth will result in a... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2017 Commodity prices face a number of headwinds moving into next year, including rising US interest rates, further US dollar strength and less stimulus spending by the Chinese authorities. However, we... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Discord among Riksbank board points to end of loosening While the Riksbank extended QE today, a number of the Executive Board dissented, suggesting that today’s announcement marks the beginning of the end for policy loosening in Sweden. Indeed, despite its... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rising risk of recession The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter and the weak tone of October’s international trade data have raised the chances that Australia will experience its first recession in 25 years. We wouldn... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
