Energy Update US natural gas prices to rise next year Stronger demand should help to boost US natural gas prices next year. But an increase in supply and high stocks will limit the increase. 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key economic calls for 2017 We expect growth in the US to pick up next year as a result of Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus, but in several other advanced economies it is likely to slow. Although headline inflation is set... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2017 The underlying momentum in the economy remains sluggish and circumstances aren’t likely to improve next year, mainly because of a worsening downturn in housing investment. We expect GDP growth to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 2.9% y/y last month, up from 1.5% y/y in October, as India, Russia and China continued to expand... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that retail spending has put in a strong performance during the festive period. However, consumer spending growth still looks set to slow in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Nexit is not next, but Dutch voters still pose threat to EU There is little chance of March’s Dutch general election resulting in a referendum on EU membership. But the shift in political sentiment towards euroscepticism may derail EU policymaking in other... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to rise in 2017, but still room for EMs to keep rates low Inflation is set to rise in most emerging economies in 2017 as the drag from lower oil prices continues to unwind. Even so, with underlying price pressures in check, the jump in fuel inflation is... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values edge up again As we approach the end of the year, there are few signs of stress in the commercial property market. While the retail sector continues to underperform, the bigger picture is that yields appear to have... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Dec.) A huge rise in manufacturing confidence, to within touching distance of a record high, pushed the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator higher still in December. This calls into question the Riksbank’s... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today. As expected, it upgraded its assessment of the health of the economy, which points to policy remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed rate hike in their stride Financial markets in India have taken last week’s decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in a year in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens more... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
