Global Markets Update Turning even more bearish on US Treasuries We are revising up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for three key reasons. The first relates to the outlook for interest rates. The second relates to compensation for uncertainty. And the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Oct.) Peru’s economy weakened sharply in October and, while we don’t think that the slowdown will be sustained, it’s an early sign that GDP growth may weaken in Q4. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t follow the Fed The unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed has resumed tightening... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still consistent with strong commodity demand Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, which probably explains the relatively muted responses in commodity markets. We expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017, which... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Sri Lanka recovered in the third quarter of 2016, but with fiscal and monetary policy set to tighten further next year, a strong rebound is unlikely. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weak inflation to prompt Norges Bank rate cut in 2017 The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for growth and inflation. While policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Retail sales growth continued to rise in November, following October’s surge, suggesting the retail sector will provide strong support to GDP growth in Q4. Nonetheless, the rate of spending growth... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s ultra-loose policy won’t stop franc rising against euro The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention was as expected. The Bank may have drawn some comfort from the franc’s recent decline... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but cut in 2017 likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the growth outlook deteriorating and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut in 2017. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in December in almost a year and supports our view that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace this quarter. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks fell last week as imports dropped. But production grew again, highlighting the risk that output cuts by OPEC and the resulting increase in prices will simply encourage more non-OPEC... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
