China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) The jump in new lending last month was largely seasonal. Broad credit growth did pick up slightly but the increase was small and is unlikely to elicit a major policy response. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Indian wholesale price inflation eased only slightly last month, supporting the message from yesterday’s CPI numbers that, while demonetisation has affected prices, there is little indication that... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Balance of payments position remains secure The narrowing in India’s current account deficit over a four-quarter sum in Q3, along with another rise in net FDI inflows, leaves the economy looking well-placed to cope in the event of a renewed... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The fall in consumer confidence to an eight-month low in December shows that households have been spooked by the decline in GDP in the third quarter. While confidence is still consistent with a decent... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets regain their poise, but risks remain Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms still reluctant to invest despite post-election cheer The sharp rise in the NFIB optimism index in November shows that the election result has had a clear positive impact not only on consumer confidence but small business sentiment too. The details... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices jump on the prospect of output cuts The price of oil rose sharply as oil producers surpassed market expectations by agreeing to cut supply by 1.8m barrels a day from January. Meanwhile, industrial metals prices rose further as investors... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia Today’s news that Donald Trump has nominated Rex Tillerson to be Secretary of State has clearly increased the chances that US sanctions on Russia will be lifted in the coming years. Were that to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Low inflation cements Riksbank loosening As inflation was a touch weaker in November than the Riksbank anticipated, monetary policy is set to be loosened further. While we expect the Riksbank to announce an extension of QE, the already-weak... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) In October, signs of fiscal slippage eased somewhat in the euro zone’s periphery. But the Greek bailout deal remains at risk of collapse and the growing likelihood of a bail-out for Italian banks... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The drop in CPI inflation in November can be attributed to the government’s demonetisation measures, but today’s data don’t indicate that disruption to the economy has been as dramatic as some reports... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan? The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
