Europe Economics Update Dovish Draghi signals prolonged ECB market presence While the ECB announced today that it would slow the pace of its asset purchases from next April, it also committed to buying for longer than anticipated. What’s more, it expressed a clear bias... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A closer look at the rental vacancy rate Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those... 8th December 2016 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in November, from 3.1% y/y in October, and it’s unlikely to stop there. We expect the headline rate to climb above the top-end of the central bank’s 2-4% target... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack OPEC takes centre stage OPEC’s confirmation that it would cut production next year in an attempt to reduce the surplus in the market caused oil prices to surge at the end of November. The surprise victory for Donald Trump in... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy headed for a brutal end to the year October’s mining and manufacturing data were both worse than even the most pessimistic analysts had expected. This suggests that, after a very weak Q3, the economy may have slowed even further in Q4. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) A slump in PGM output drove South Africa’s total mine production lower in October, after tentative signs of a recovery in September. While this is not good news for South Africa’s economy, it is... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes jumped in November, despite markedly higher US dollar prices and a weaker renminbi. Trends in activity suggest that import demand will remain robust in the near-term... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation surged to 19.4% y/y in November following the float and subsequent 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar, as well as fresh subsidy cuts. Inflation looks set to rise even... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) This morning’s figures do nothing alter the picture of an acute shortage of willing sellers. But with house prices already so high and price expectations down compared to the early part of the year... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Better-than-expected trade data out of China today reflects both an uptick in global demand as well as the continued strength of the domestic economy. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey showed that current conditions are the most buoyant since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the survey still points to a slowdown in job growth in coming months. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit in October is worrying as it implies net exports may be a big drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. After yesterday’s news that GDP contracted in the... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) GDP growth wasn’t quite as strong last quarter as initially reported, but this was more than offset by upward revisions to previous quarters. Spare capacity is narrowing and we still expect the Bank... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18 Comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference support our view that interest rates will be left unchanged next year, not hiked as the markets... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada taking a wait and see approach After seriously considering an interest rate cut back in October, the Bank of Canada gave no strong indication in today’s policy statement that it was considering a rate cut in the near term. There... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
