Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Nov.) While November’s fall in Swiss inflation was mainly due to energy effects, the weakness of core inflation will do little to ease fears that the economy may be experiencing a sustained bout of damaging... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) November’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor indicated that shoppers can still be tempted by a bargain, despite weakening confidence. But the fundamentals still point to a slowdown in spending ahead. 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South African Q3 GDP data showed that the economy slowed by even more than most had anticipated. While the Reserve Bank has sounded a little more hawkish over the past month, today’s weak data support... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA looks through possible fall in Q3 GDP After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia remained fairly optimistic on the outlook for activity even though the economy may have contracted in the third... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth picked up marginally in October but remained very weak. While wages are rising more strongly allowing for falling working hours, the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates on the rise following Trump win Trump’s win, and the expected fiscal stimulus that it will generate, has led to a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. In turn, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to its highest level... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4 Both households and businesses appear to have been undeterred by Brexit uncertainty in Q3. What’s more, the latest business surveys suggest that the economy will turn in another solid performance in... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose despite Trump win The latest data show that global monetary conditions remain exceptionally accommodative. Monetary aggregates and bank lending to the private sector are rising at a steady pace, and although government... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) October’s rise in retail sales and November’s decent euro-zone PMIs are consistent with an acceleration of GDP growth in Q4. But with Italy’s “No” vote heightening political risks, the prospects for... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Robust supply to weigh on soybeans prices October’s rise in retail sales and November’s decent euro-zone PMIs are consistent with an acceleration of GDP growth in Q4. But with Italy’s “No” vote heightening political risks, the prospects for... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Nov.) November’s Markit/CIPS Report on Services suggests that the UK economy will turn in another solid performance in Q4. 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia? The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Oct.) Swedish industrial and services output started Q4 on a fairly weak note, but forward-looking indicators also released this morning were more positive. As such, it still seems likely that Swedish GDP... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
