Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How gloomy should we be about investment? The past few weeks have brought yet more relatively upbeat economic news and the first estimate of investment in Q3 was no exception. But we wouldn’t read too much into a single set of figures. And... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October provides an early sign that, following the slump in Q3, a strong rebound in output in Q4 is unlikely. 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Nov.) The construction PMI edged up again in November and is at a level consistent with overall construction output expanding following a contraction in the third quarter. The commercial activity sub-index... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy The recent shift by the military government in Thailand towards economic populism will help to shore-up demand in the short-term. But the stalling of economic reform is undermining the country’s long... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate) The stagnation of Swiss GDP in Q3 demonstrates the negative impact that deflation and the strong franc have had on the economy. With a plethora of political risks inthe euro-zone set to keep the franc... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness to feed inflation rebound The recent weakening of the yen will lift headline inflation by around 0.5 percentage points in coming months and further gains are likely if, as we have been forecasting for a while, the yen weakens... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Brace yourself for GDP If the Australian economy did indeed stagnate or contract in the third quarter, it needs to be seen in the context of the unusual strength in the previous two quarters. This means there’s probably no... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Business surveys released earlier today extend the run of upbeat data on the world economy. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI edged higher from 52.0 to 52.1 in November and is consistent on past form... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Mexico’s manufacturing PMI fell in November following the election of Donald Trump but the decline was very modest and doesn’t point to a renewed downturn in production over the coming months... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to a five-month high of 53.2 in November, from 51.9, is another illustration that the US factory sector is gradually recovering from the impact of the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values post first rise since May Economic indicators showed that the economy has held up since the referendum vote. The PMIs point to healthy GDP growth in Q4 and retail sales growing at a strong clip. That said, job creation has... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Further depreciation of the renminbi unlikely to rock EM markets 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
