China Economics Update Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC The renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar quickened in November, with the Chinese currency reaching fresh multi-year lows against its US counterpart. We expect it to breach 7.0 against the US... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC confirms Algiers deal, but real test still to come OPEC’s agreement to cut production by 1.2m bpd, in line with the provisional deal made in Algiers at the end of September, was more ambitious than the market (and we) had expected. However, the focus... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate cut until early next year The rebound in third-quarter GDP likely means that the Bank of Canada will leave its economic projections and policy interest rate unchanged next Wednesday. But policymakers will still have doubts... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high Chinese equities extended their rally in November, hitting the highest since January. The renminbi fell to an eight-year low against the US dollar, but strengthened against the trade-weighted basket... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Lower net imports of crude oil appeared to be the main driver of the draw on crude oil inventories as demand from refineries actually fell last week. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London Housing Chart Book - London set to underperform House price growth in London has held up reasonably well in the aftermath of the EU referendum. But the bigger picture is that the capital is in the midst of an internal adjustment. Outer London has... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Have the threats to commercial property been overstated? The vote to leave the EU has polarised opinions about the outlook for commercial property. But we think there are good reasons to be optimistic. The monetary policy response to the vote has helped... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are equities in commodity-exporting EMs ripe for a rally? 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Nov.) The Colliers/REC survey painted a weak picture of the short-term outlook for commercial property. Respondents expect rising yields and falling rental values to cause a 2% fall in capital values. Our... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy? With President Trump set to implement a large fiscal stimulus next year, US inflation and interest rates will both rise more rapidly than seemed likely a month ago. This has already had knock-on... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2016) Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets stabilise post Trump Financial markets in Latin America have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. While we expect dollar-denominated bonds to come under further pressure... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks continue to dwindle It has been a quiet month for stock movements, with the exception of copper. However, the drop in LME copper stocks and surge in Shanghai inventories can be largely explained by price arbitrage... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a nine-year high in November echoes the improvement in other measures and suggests that the election result had a clear positive impact... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
