Nordic & Swiss Economics Update External market drivers Trump domestic factors The election of Donald Trump in the US drove large moves in Nordic and Swiss financial markets last month, with currencies generally depreciating against the US dollar while long-term bond yields... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Markets focus on the Trump positives Following the victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election, commodity markets chose to focus on his promise of a large fiscal stimulus, including a substantial increase in infrastructure... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise Amid heightened political and economic uncertainty, President Mario Draghi seems set to announce another six-month extension to the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme this month. We expect purchases to... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House prices held broadly steady for a second consecutive month in November. With house prices already so high, and house price sentiment still a little short of pre-referendum levels, a pick-up in... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Italian GDP (Q3) October’s euro-zone unemployment data show that the labour market recovery has regained some pace. But the rate of unemployment is still high and recent developments are consistent with pretty slow... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Swiss and Swedish manufacturers are performing well, while their Norwegian and Danish counterparts are still lagging behind. 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Nov.) November’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI implies that the sector has gained some momentum, following a post-referendum contraction. This should help ensure GDP growth doesn’t slow too much in the near... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November should not distract from the fact that the measure still points to a very poor performance. All of the early data suggests that the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened between Q3 and Q4. At a country level, the surveys suggest that Russia’s recovery is... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in November reverses the strength from October. Looking ahead, local manufacturers are likely to struggle amid the fallout from the demonetisation... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest conditions in the region’s manufacturing sectors mostly remained subdued in November. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) Although the divergence in the official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs last month suggests that some firms are faring better than others, the data nonetheless signal that China’s recovery remains... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The weak third-quarter private capital expenditure survey adds to other evidence that suggests the economy may not have grown at all in the third quarter. It also confirms that the transition towards... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that non-residential investment was a touch stronger last quarter than initially estimated. However, the second preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP should confirm... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
