Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK financial system coping well with uncertainty While the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggested that the UK financial system has fared well during recent uncertainty, it highlighted lingering risks. Nonetheless, we think that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets stabilise Asian financial markets have stabilised after falling sharply in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump’s surprise US election victory. Looking ahead, we expect to see further falls in currencies... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.) South Africa’s trade balance improved in October, but this was driven largely by a fall in imports. This may be an early sign that domestic demand weakened. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data requires two major caveats. The first is that the national accounts figures remain difficult to align with other indicators showing that activity is... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) About 0.3%-pts of the 0.8%-pt contraction in Brazil GDP in Q3 can be chalked down to one-off effects stemming from a poor harvest and temporary disruptions to vehicle production. But the big story... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.) The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small pick-up in euro-zone headline inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from announcing further policy stimulus next week. Indeed, underlying price pressures remain subdued and inflation... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The stumble in consumer confidence in November is another sign that the recent strength in spending is unlikely to last. Nonetheless, low interest rates, a resilient labour market, and less fiscal... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What’s next for zinc prices? Over the past year, zinc prices have rallied strongly, reaching a nine-year high recently, on the back of mine closures and production cuts. While the refined market will continue to tighten through... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Small business confidence was flat in November and suggests that the economy is treading water. Meanwhile, there are signs that the recent weakening of the exchange rate is boosting price pressures. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What next for the rupee? Markets largely shrugged off the recent fall in the rupee to a record low against the US dollar, and were right to do so. With other EM currencies also weakening and inflation higher in India than... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) While industrial production was little changed in October, firms’ forecasts point to a strong rise in the current quarter. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
