Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Four reasons why a recession remains unlikely The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter has raised the possibility that the first recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output, in 25 years has begun. But while the GDP data... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter is unlikely to mark the start of a recession as GDP will probably rebound in the fourth quarter. Even so, it highlights that the economy is not strong... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor enthusiasm buoying the prices of industrials Investors have been encouraged by stronger economic data out of China and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US and have significantly increased their exposure to industrial metals. Conversely... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The decline in export volumes in October, following the sharp fall in the month before, suggest that export growth this quarter might turn out a lot weaker than even we had assumed. Accordingly, the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in October was mainly a result of the unwinding of the distortion caused by the spike in soybean exports earlier in the summer. It also suggests that net trade... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain in Goldilocks zone in 2017 Despite widespread concerns about deflation at the start of this year, consumer price inflation has averaged 2% in the first ten months of 2016, up from 1.4% in 2015. We expect headline inflation to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.8% y/y, won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the rate-setting meeting next week. Nonetheless, we think the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president on the way out, but crisis to persist It now appears only a matter of time until President Park Geun-hye is forced out of office. But even once she is gone, it will be a while before the political situation returns to anything like normal... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q3) The final estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with consumers’ real income growth now slowing as energy inflation rises, spending growth, and thus GDP... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
