Europe Commercial Property Update Signs point towards higher German industrial rents Tight supply and a positive demand outlook point towards a rise in prime German industrial rents. Indeed, we think rental growth prospects are relatively strong compared to the last ten years. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Construction starts to slow Commercial construction activity faces several headwinds, such as subdued occupier market conditions as well as rising costs. However, if developers believe (as we do) that the economy will recover... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from the upcoming Shunto? We expect the upcoming spring wage negotiations to result in base pay hikes of only 0.5% or so, which would be broadly in line with the increase agreed upon this year. Even with output per employee... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer and producer price inflation both accelerated last month. Rather than exporting deflation as many had previously feared, China is now a source of global inflationary pressure. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland to keep rates unchanged Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met and so, like last month, policy will be unchanged next week. As political and exchange rate uncertainty fades next year, concerns... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Activity steady while price growth cools With buyer numbers growing, the number of homes coming onto the market falling, and the stock of homes for sale at a record low, sellers have the upper hand. But with house prices so high and some... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike? The uncertainty surrounding next week’s Fed meeting is not about the out come of that meeting – a 25 basis point rate hike is all but guaranteed – but over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take some comfort from recent data suggesting that the economy has maintained its momentum in Q4, while sterling’s recovery may have lessened the extent to... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
