Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Keeping up the fight against a strong franc The Swiss National Bank will stress after its meeting on 15th December that it is prepared to act decisively to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Indeed... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could the IPD figures be underestimating capital value falls? A recent report argued that the fall in all-property capital values in the third quarter may have been double the one presented in the IPD quarterly index. Yet the same methodology implies that the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing UK House Price Index (Oct.) and MLAR statistics (Q3) Data from the official house price index show that house price growth cooled in October. And while data from the Bank of England suggests that borrower leverage rose in Q3, that is happening within... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s ZEW survey suggested that investors were not too concerned about the effects of euro-zone political uncertainty on the German economy, although the index still points to a slowdown in GDP... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The rise in CPI inflation is part of an upward trend which will see inflation peak at about 3% in early 2018. However, we don’t think it will trouble the MPC too much. 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Another set of broadly positive data suggest that China is on track to end this year on a strong note. But signs that the property sector may now be entering a correction add weight to our view that... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Business Confidence (Oct.) House Prices (Q3) The rebound in business confidence in November supports our view that Australia is unlikely to fall into its first recession in 25 years in the fourth quarter. But the ABS house price data for the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice? Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the US stock market heading for a re-run of the early 1980s? 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small rise in Mexican industrial production in October doesn’t alter the bigger picture that the sector remains the key weak spot in the economy. We expect industry to do little more than stagnate... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook On course for weakest growth since the global financial crisis The Middle East & North Africa region will struggle again next year, recording its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in 2009. Fiscal policy will have to be tightened in most... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect The much-sharper-than-expected 1.8% y/y contraction in Turkish GDP in Q3 probably marks the low point of the economy’s coup-induced slump. Nonetheless, the data reinforce our view that most analysts... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) Combined with the recovery in capital goods shipments, October’s rebound in “core” machinery orders suggests that business investment will start to recover this quarter. 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50 Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
