US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December, to its highest level in almost two years, suggests that the post-election rebound in sentiment has been sustained. It... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus on the Fed statement and Trump’s reaction The prices of most industrial metals surged this week, largely due to increased investor interest. Strong China’s imports in November and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US further buoyed... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Service sector growth to slow next year Despite the fallout from the slump in oil-related business investment, the service sector enjoyed relatively strong growth over the past two years, mainly because of an acceleration in housing... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian industrial production data for October suggest that the sector was struggling even prior to the government’s demonetisation measures. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in November, coming on the back of less hawkish communications from policymakers in recent weeks, make it more likely that COPOM will step up... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) The UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in October, following a large upward revision to the Q3 deficit. And the drop in the pound should support net trade’s contribution to GDP growth in the coming... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hint at 2017 rate cut The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 15th December. Indeed, in October, the Bank repeated its message that “the key policy rate would most likely... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Limited upside for platinum prices in 2017 Platinum has substantially underperformed its sister metals – palladium and rhodium – this year as its higher correlation with gold has seen its price fall sharply since the US presidential election... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
