Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4

Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the middle of the pack, Sweden, Denmark and Finland recorded fairly decent growth rates of between 0.4% and 0.5%, while the economy of mainland Norway expanded by a slower 0.2%. Switzerland and Norway’s underperformance was due to consumption, which failed to grow at all. The pair at least received a boost from net trade, which was also the case for Sweden and Iceland. In contrast, net trade was unchanged in Finland and detracted from growth in Denmark. Looking ahead, survey indicators for almost all of the Nordic and Swiss economies point to an acceleration of annual GDP growth. The one exception is Denmark, where the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator is consistent with GDP growth falling below zero.