UK Economics Weekly Taking stock, six months after the referendum As well as being the end of the year, it is now six months since the UK voted to leave the EU and so it is a good time to take stock of where we are, what we got right, what we got wrong, and what to... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economy grew more quickly after the referendum than previously estimated. Moreover, the latest surveys suggest that the economy will turn in... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina to return to growth next year The relatively shallow 0.2% q/q contraction in Argentine GDP in Q3 supports our view that the recession is close to an end. We think the economy will return to positive growth in 2017, but the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy fuels risks in Vietnam Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Prospects for world trade still weak The latest data show that world trade fell in October, continuing the renewed slowdown since 2015. Looking ahead, while world trade is unlikely to collapse, it will probably remain sluggish for years... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Fastest growth since 2013 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has continued to accelerate sharply. In fact, we estimate that output is currently expanding at a pace not too far short of... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2017 Budget: austerity takes a breather Saudi Arabia’s budget suggests that, following a significant improvement in the public finances over the past couple of years, the fiscal stance will be broadly neutral in 2017. This supports our view... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Currency weakness should buoy equities in Japan and Germany 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable G’ds & Pers. Income & Spending (Nov.) November’s durable goods and personal spending reports are consistent with our existing forecast that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a more modest 2.2% annualised, following an upwardly revised 3.5... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack increasing Nowhere is the lingering damage to the economy caused by the commodity price slump more evident than in the labour market. Unemployment is still rising sharply in the worst-affected regions, while... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The further softening in core inflation in November to 1.3%, from 1.4%, suggests that there is more downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s inflation rate outlook, which is consistent with our view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end 2016 on a strong note Prices have drifted a bit this week, ahead of the Christmas and New Year holiday period. However, the bigger picture is that the prices of most industrial commodities are ending the year significantly... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
