Global Markets Update How much should we make of the strength of the FTSE? The widespread pessimism about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017 seems at odds with the continued gains in UK equity prices. This can partly be explained, of course, by the importance of overseas... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 54.7 in December, up from 53.2 the month before, is another indication that the negative impact stemming from the big surge in the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) The recent acceleration in house prices picked up pace in November, with CoreLogic reporting that annual growth exceeded 7% for the first time since May 2014. A spike in housing demand following Trump... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market close to full employment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 200,000 in December. And although the unemployment rate may have edged back up to 4.7%, this would still leave it below Fed officials’... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends 2016 on a strong note Manufacturing in the emerging world remained strong at the end of last year according to the latest PMIs. Conditions in China and Russia, in particular, continued to improve. That being said, the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Flash CPI (Dec.) While German inflation surged to a three-year high in December, the French rate barely increased. And with underlying price pressures still very subdued throughout the euro-zone, the ECB need not... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Nickel market to tighten, but will that be enough? The prospect of reduced mine supply from the Philippines was a key driver of the rally in nickel prices in the second half of 2016. However, the price of nickel still underperformed its base metal... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs suggest that Swiss, Swedish and Danish manufacturers ended 2016 on a strong note, but their Norwegian counterparts are still lagging behind. 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Dec.) The significant improvement in the December Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey’s main balances provides more evidence that the sector’s post referendum weakness will prove short-lived. This should help... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Dec.) The surprisingly sharp rise in Turkish inflation in December, to 8.5% y/y, was due mainly to a jump in food and energy inflation, although the weakness of the lira is also feeding through into higher... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2017 In our first Watch of 2017, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming 12 months. The government’s demonetisation measures will lead to some weakness at the beginning of the year... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs were a mixed bag in December. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the recovery in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears to have... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Advanced) Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP suggests the economy avoided a technical recession at the end of last year. However, rising interest rates and lacklustre global demand will... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong spending rests on some shaky foundations The latest Quarterly National Accounts provided further reasons to think that recent rates of spending growth will not be sustained next year. That said, we do not anticipate that a dramatic slowdown... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Possibility of “transitional” deal gains further traction There are indications that the Government may be moving away from the recent “soft” Brexit rhetoric this week. But given the growing signs that it is also considering some sort of “transitional”... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
