Global Economics Chart Pack World economy entering 2017 with some momentum The world economy is entering 2017 with stronger growth and rising inflation, but prospects for the rest of the year are more mixed. Activity has picked up in unison across the major economies in... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stock market starts 2017 on a high The very beginning of 2017 has not been shy of Brexit-related drama, although none of it appears to have particularly rattled financial markets. This probably reflects the fact that the latest data... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth misfiring again Even allowing for the rebound in real exports in November, the 0.3% m/m decline in monthly GDP in October means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably 1.0% annualised or less, putting it well... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities looking for direction It has been a quiet start to 2017 in commodity markets. Investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach, ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Trump and more clarity on his policy... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Increase in US Treasury yields probably has further to run 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing slowly pulling out of slump Manufacturing appears to be slowly pulling out of its recent slump stemming from the big surge in the dollar in 2014 and 2015, with the ISM manufacturing index and manufacturing employment both... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A strong end to 2016 Revisions from the ONS mean that quarterly GDP growth in Q3 is now estimated to have been 0.6% – the same as in Q2. What’s more, business surveys suggest that this pace was maintained in Q4... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Secondary property to outperform in Sweden Five of the six largest Nordic investment transactions in 2016 involved portfolios in Sweden. We think that reflects growing confidence in the outlook for non-prime properties in the region’s largest... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are even we too pessimistic on growth? While we have been considerably more upbeat than other forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017, the positive tone of recent indicators suggests that even we might have been a bit too... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The massive 54,000 increase in employment in December continued the barely believable run of job gains over the past few months. The economy added 108,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, the most since... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Three key risks to UK commercial property in 2017 In our view, 2017 will prove to be a better year for property than the consensus assumes. But there is little room for complacency. A domestic-led inflationary shock, well beyond what central banks... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone government bond spreads balloon in 2017? We expect euro-zone government bond spreads to reach multi-year highs in 2017, with the largest increases in Italy and France, due to rising doubts about their futures in the currency union. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected drop in Chilean inflation to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y, taking it further below the central bank’s 3% target, probably seals the deal for a 25bp interest rate cut (to 3.25%... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
