French election pits liberalism against protectionism

Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage, France looks likely to get a reform-minded president, raising hopes of economic revival. But a Le Pen victory should not be ruled out. pinion polls indicate three frontrunners for the presidency: François Fillon, standing for the centreright Les Républicains, Marine Le Pen for the populist National Front (FN) and Emmanuel Macron, representing his new, centrist party En Marche. In polls of first-round voting intentions, Mme. Le Pen is now narrowly leading M. Fillon, by 27% to 25%, after trailing him since mid-November. Meanwhile, M. Macron’s support continues to grow, averaging around 20%. At the margin, M. Hamon’s win could benefit M. Macron if centrist PS voters abandon the party. And M. Hamon’s protectionist pro-labour stance might appeal to some who would have otherwise voted for Mme. Le Pen. Since no candidate looks set to win an outright majority in the first round on 23rd April, the most likely scenario is a run-off between M. Fillon and Mme. Le Pen on 6th May. Recent polls suggest M. Fillon would win convincingly as mainstream voters united against Mme. Le Pen. If M. Macron were to reach the second round, recent surveys indicate he would win against either of the other two. We suspect he would face Mme. Le Pen since he would be more likely to steal support from M. Fillon.