Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its 14th straight meeting today. With the government prepared to do the heavy lifting to support the economy, the... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Recession or rapid recovery? We wouldn’t rule it out completely, but it is looking less likely that Australia fell into its first recession since 1991 at the end of last year. However, a sustained period of stronger growth is not... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we stop worrying about politics? The lesson of 2016 is that political shocks often have limited economic consequences. This implies that a period of political chaos or paralysis in Washington may not make much difference to the US... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What have we learned about Brexit? The prospect of Brexit has proved much less damaging to the UK economy than most forecasters expected after the referendum seven months ago. And while there is still much uncertainty over what Brexit... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient in face of rising interest rates Mortgage applications for home purchase held up in January, even as mortgage rates resumed their upward trend. However, inventory shortages are weighing on home sales. The number of existing single... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could Trump politicise US statistics? The Trump administration’s alarming tendency to dismiss objective facts as “fake news”, which can be countered with their own “alternative facts”, has led to claims that the President and his team... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Respite for euro-zone peripheral bonds likely to be short-lived 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) The recent strength in house price growth continued in December according to CoreLogic. Prices were estimated to have increased 7.2% in 2016 – the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With inventory... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The marginal decline in the nominal trade deficit in December was broadly in line with expectations and confirms that net trade was a big drag on fourth-quarter GDP. But that fourth-quarter drag was... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December’s trade report confirmed that, even with the benefit of a weaker Canadian dollar, export volumes barely grew last year, which is further evidence of the structural competitiveness challenges... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The Halifax report that house prices fell in January, partially unwinding a strong run in the final quarter of 2016. The data, therefore, echoed the message from last week’s Nationwide data that house... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor echoed other evidence that there has been some moderation in consumer spending growth. And with higher inflation set to slow the pace of real income gains, spending... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Gambling on growth We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is being too complacent in expecting GDP growth to be close to 3% over the next couple of years and underlying inflation to rise to 2.0%. So while the RBA... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
