Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) While machinery orders rebounded in December, their link to spending on machinery and equipment has been weak lately. Nonetheless, the pronounced recovery in capital goods shipments supports our view... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending set to remain weak The jump in South African retail sales in November has raised hopes in some quarters that consumer spending could be on the brink of a recovery. However, as we explain in this Watch, there are strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Recent recovery likely to prove a false dawn Financial markets in the emerging world have maintained their strong start to the year. But we don’t expect this to be sustained, as the Fed resumes its tightening and geo-political uncertainty... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals that rate hikes not on the agenda The dovish tone of the Polish MPC’s post-meeting press conference this afternoon reinforces our view that the policy interest rate will be kept at its current historic low of 1.50% throughout 2017-18... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories rose by a near record level last week. But stocks of gasoline were drawn down a little. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to slump in 2017 Algeria’s economy held up better than expected last year as a rebound in the hydrocarbon sector offset weakness in the non-hydrocarbon sector. However, the adjustment to low oil prices is far from... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update IMF’s gloomy take on Greek debt raises default risk (again) The IMF’s latest Greek debt sustainability analysis reveals that the Fund now sees debt rising even more sharply than it had assumed last year. This further reduces the likelihood that it will... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI brings loosening cycle to an end The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was in line with our non-consensus forecast and it signals the end of the loosening cycle. Looking ahead, with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rate cuts still on the cards despite hawkish statement The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept monetary policy unchanged today, but struck a hawkish note in its accompanying statement. However, we believe that the downward effects of a further strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand rose 2% y/y in 2016 to reach a three-year high of 4,309 tonnes. This increase was predominantly the result of strong safe-haven demand in the first half of the year. In 2017, we... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) Weaker-than-expected growth in Turkish industrial production in December, of 1.3% y/y, supports our view that the recovery from Q3’s downturn will be sluggish. It looks like the economy may have grown... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
