UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2016 Q4) Weak demand from home-movers and prospective BTL landlords continued to drag on mortgage lending towards the end of last year. As a result, lending volumes recorded their weakest Q4 performance since... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & German ZEW (Feb.) The second estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP suggested that economic conditions at the end of last year were not quite as positive as previously estimated by Eurostat. And growth looks set to slow this... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The huge increase in net new lending in China last month was seasonal. Growth in outstanding loans actually slowed to a ten-year low in January. Broad credit growth also slowed last month and is set... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Dec.) House price growth on the official index accelerated in December, driven in part by a surprisingly strong set of figures for the North of England. But with house prices high across the country, this... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will a slowdown in efficiency gains curtail US shale oil output? Oil price increases following production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries stand to be partially tempered by higher US shale oil output. Improved efficiency in the industry means that oil producers... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation took another step up in January and looks set to breach the MPC’s 2% target next month. However, we don’t think that the forthcoming rise will panic the MPC into hiking interest rates... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Italian GDP (Q4), German Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following this morning’s release of German and Italian Q4 GDP data, we are sticking to our forecast that euro-zone Q4 GDP growth will be left unrevised at +0.5%. 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer, Producer & Import Prices (Jan.) Switzerland’s consumer and producer prices data for January provided some hope that the prolonged period of falling prices may finally be over. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Outlook for oil prices still benign for world economy OPEC is unlikely to sustain the production cuts which it implemented in January, but we expect a combination of rising global demand and increased US shale production to keep prices fairly stable for... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: OPEC deal a short-term gain, but unlikely to be renewed The sharp rise in oil prices means that, despite implementing a larger-than-pledged oil output cut, Saudi Arabia has been a big beneficiary from the recent OPEC agreement. But with compliance likely... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Japanese keep shunning Treasuries? The news that Japanese investors have been selling large amounts of US Treasuries reinforces our view that reduced appetite from overseas investors will play a role in driving up their yields this... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities? 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC reins in production OPEC’s oil production dropped sharply in January as the group’s new output quota came into force. However, Iran, Libya and Nigeria continued to increase output. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow Nigeria’s successful Eurobond issue late last week provided another sign that the economy is over the worst of the recent downturn. Hopes for a quick recovery, however, are likely to be disappointed. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The jump in Polish inflation last month, to 1.8% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained flat. Accordingly, we remain of the view that the... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
