Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of resilient economic news to an abrupt end and suggests that the hit to consumer spending growth... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack One year on from the oil slump Emerging market inflation and export growth jumped in January, although this had more do with base effects than a marked strengthening of underlying demand or price pressures. The year-on-year growth... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The dip in Swedish inflation in January was mainly due to base effects and will be reversed in February. And with pay growth set to pick up after this year’s wage negotiations, underlying inflationary... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike The decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate on hold despite the rise in inflation to a 30-year high last month means that additional monetary tightening is no longer on the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained The recent strength of the Argentine peso, which has been the best-performing currency in Latin America so far this month, has led some to suggest that the worst is over for the currency. However, the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Agreement or not, Greece’s troubles are far from over The latest news on the Greek economy support the IMF’s pessimistic views about the sustainability of Greek debt. But regardless of whether a deal on the third bailout is reached or not, rising... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks continue to build in China China’s exchange stocks have soared since the start of the year on a combination of optimism about demand and concerns about supply. 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will equity markets continue welcoming a more hawkish Fed? 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Homebuilding activity has made a slow start to 2017, with housing starts falling back by 2.6% m/m in January. The jump in homebuilder confidence following Trump’s win has also been gradually unwinding... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Aggregate Emerging Market net capital outflows slowed sharply in January. This appears to be partially due to large – but temporary – inflows into the Czech Republic. But it also reflected the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising inflation expectations to lift Treasury yields further While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does the rally in the ruble have further to run? There doesn’t appear to be any strong justification for the 5% appreciation of the ruble against the dollar this month and we think the currency will revert to its historic relationship with global... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and we think that worries about inflation will prevent the central bank from loosening policy any further over the rest of the year too. 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
