Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Data to mid-February showed another big drop in Brazilian inflation which, coming alongside the recent strength of the real, paves the way for a large reduction in the Selic interest rate at tonight’s... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Downsizing is not the answer to the housing market’s woes In theory, an increase in downsizing could improve housing market liquidity. But it would do nothing to fix excessively high house prices, nor would it boost the overall supply of housing. 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Steady bank lending still supporting global growth Credit growth has slowed in the US in recent months, but has edged higher in other advanced economies. As a result, we expect overall credit growth in advanced economies to continue at around 5% or so... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export revival boosting Hong Kong’s economy Today’s GDP figures show that growth in Hong Kong strengthened further at the end of last year on the back of a jump in exports. But while the economy should continue to perform well in the first half... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The full complement of Russian activity data for January, released today, suggests that the economy probably grew by around 0.3% y/y at the start of this year, which appears to be in line with growth... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could Trump’s trade policies mean for energy markets? Donald Trump’s proposed restrictions and tariffs on trade could cause turmoil in both the domestic and international energy markets if enacted. This Energy Watch takes a first look at what some of the... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP was a bit a mixed bag, but confirmed that the UK economy gathered momentum over the course of 2016. While the outlook remains uncertain, we think that the economy will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014 The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep rates on hold and signal the end of its loosening cycle in this month’s policy meeting took many by surprise. But subsequent data showing that core... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s renewed rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator supported the message from the PMI that growth accelerated at the start of this year. 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s sharp decline in Norway’s unemployment rate was not as encouraging as it first appears. And while surveys suggest that employment growth will pick up, we suspect that wage growth will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update More still needed to lower public debt ratio The surge in nominal GDP since the launch of Abenomics reflects a number of one-off factors whose impact has started to fade. While a smaller budget deficit should keep the ratio of public debt to GDP... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 7% y/y rise in global steel output in January. Production in all major producing regions rose, which is in stark contrast to the... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks still a major concern There are some tentative signs of improvement in the Italian banking sector, but it will be a very long time until the country’s lenders look healthy. So the banks will remain a risk to the economic... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflationary pressure rising in Sweden, fading in Norway While inflation fell in both Sweden and Norway in January, the outlook for prices in these countries differs significantly. Consumer price inflation in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.4% in January. But a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
