China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), starts soon. While the NPC meeting typically includes little in the way of policy announcements, it should nonetheless... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still looking for direction Commodity prices were broadly unchanged this week, aside from a few notable exceptions. Cobalt was the star performer as concerns about supply and expectations of strong demand led to a surge in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Net migration from the EU falls after Brexit vote There have been growing signs that some EU nationals are reacting to the vote to leave the EU by either returning to their country of citizenship or by obtaining residency rights in the UK. Meanwhile... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) At 3.7% m/m in January, the rise in new home sales came in slightly below expectations. Very wet weather in the West seems partly to blame. The good news is that with inventory levels improving... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tweaking US trade deficits no concern to Canada The potential changes to US trade balance statistics being considered by the US administration has raised eyebrows in Canada. But no matter how Trump’s administration wants to tweak the data, the US... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF consensus figures show that expectations for capital values have been nudged up this year and over the 2017-2020 period. In turn, that suggests the most negative assessments of the UK’s... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors remain positive, for now Optimism about demand, fuelled by a pick-up in China’s activity data and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US, continues to buoy investor sentiment in the industrial metals markets. However... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The headline inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January, up from 1.5%, largely because of higher gasoline inflation. While some of those gains will be reversed in February, the Bank of Canada will be much... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in frontier economies The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Headline GDP figures not quite what they seem On the face of it, last week’s GDP figures were encouraging. After all, they indicated that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, and suggested that the post-referendum drop in the pound is... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tax cuts won’t pay for themselves This Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress, which is the traditional forum for new Presidents to unveil details of their economic plans. With Trump hinting... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rallies in ruble and lira lack strong foundations The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the best performing EM currencies this month, but we don’t think their rallies will be sustained. It seems most likely that the ruble will settle... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Some encouraging signs? The latest data suggest that global trade growth picked up at the end of last year and business surveys suggest that it remained strong in January. What’s more, President Trump may be beginning to row... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
