US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in February leaves the index at a 15-year high and suggests that consumption growth will remain robust. 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Big movements in Icelandic markets The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The relief rally in US Treasuries is unlikely to last much longer 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Stocks rise, currencies and bond yields steady While most equity markets in the region rose for the second straight month in February, Asian currencies and bond yields largely held steady. Most Asian equity markets have recorded decent gains over... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil Inflation in Brazil has fallen more quickly than even we had anticipated and, as such, we have pencilled in additional cuts to interest rates this year. We now expect the Selic to fall to 9.00% by end... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth reached 5.8% in December according to Case-Shiller, the fastest pace of growth for 2½ years. With market conditions set to remain tight, as faster income growth supports... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update January’s inflation jump unlikely to last EM inflation jumped in January on the back of a rise in fuel price inflation. However, this was driven entirely by base effects stemming from the drop in oil prices at the start of last year. These... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Official GDP data showing only a gradual slowdown in Indian growth in Q4 is hard to square with other more reliable monthly data which show activity slowed sharply towards the end of last year... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Steady stream of Gulf dollar bond sales continues Oman and, for the first time, Kuwait are expected to sell dollar bonds in the coming weeks, continuing the raft of issuances from the Gulf countries over the past year. Kuwait’s strong balance sheet... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4) & Swedish Retail Sales (Jan.) Swedish growth picked up sharply in Q4, driven mainly by external demand. In Denmark, GDP growth was slower and is set to remain fairly subdued. 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Rising inflation appears to be starting to weigh on consumer sentiment. That said, confidence remains above its long-run average, suggesting that the expected slowdown in consumer spending growth won... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us Nigeria’s economy contracted by just 1.3% in Q4 2016, confirming our view that the slump bottomed out in Q3. Growth will pick up in 2017, and may even be a bit stronger than most expect. he National... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence weakened slightly in February, the survey has not been a good to activity lately. We would highlight that firms continue to report pronounced staff shortages while... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
