Asia Economics Weekly Spike in inflation nothing to worry about The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Household spending rebounded sharply in January as the labour market continued to tighten. However, price pressures remain subdued as the boost from higher energy prices is dampened by weak service... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest business surveys The deterioration in Mexico’s IMEF survey since the start of this year looks alarming but there are reasons to believe that it is overstating the softness in the real economy. Meanwhile, the incoming... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to treat growth pick-up with caution The recent run of positive data may lead the ECB to judge that downside risks to the economic outlook have receded when it meets next week. But core inflation has remained low despite the rise in the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview January strength was no fluke The strength of the survey evidence suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by an even stronger 240,000 in February, which should have been enough to bring the unemployment rate back down... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Gap between Treasury and Gilt yields likely to get even bigger 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2016) More moderate GDP growth in the fourth quarter completed what proved to be a disappointing year of only 1.4% growth. Policymakers had hoped for a more spirited and sustainable export-led recovery... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will home movers be left stranded by rising mortgage rates? As interest rates rise, one concern is that a reluctance to give up a record low mortgage rate will deter Americans from moving home, restricting sales. But while that may put some households off... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), PPI & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s rise in euro-zone inflation to the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling reflected temporary energy and food effects. With core inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the ECB’s plans to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Feb.) The headline construction PMI ticked up in February. But within the total, the commercial PMI edged down to a level that is consistent with rental stability over 2017. 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book - Few signs of a revival London’s housing market has shown few signs of a revival over the past quarter. Transactions have dropped sharply and house price growth is on a downward trajectory. That said, with the economic... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory has raised concerns in some quarters that the country could be at risk of a long and damaging period of deflation. There are good reasons to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4, 1st Estimate) The lacklustre expansion of Swiss GDP in Q4 suggests that the negative effects of deflation and the strong franc are still lingering. And with political risks in the euro-zone set to keep the franc... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on hold for the rest of the year With the economy gaining momentum, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady for... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
