India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp drop in the trade surplus in January suggests that net exports will provide a sizeable drag on growth in the current quarter. And while rising consumption goods imports suggest that the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories increased again last week, for the eighth consecutive week. On the other hand, gasoline and distillate stocks fell. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The latest batch of PMI data suggest that, partly thanks to stronger external demand, conditions in manufacturing sectors across the emerging world continued to improve in February. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: 2016 likely to be as good as it gets for the economy Peru’s economy is likely to weaken in 2017 as the one-off boost from a surge in copper production fades and a gradual tightening of policy weighs on the non-mining sector. After expanding by 3.9% in... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Global manufacturing continued to expand very strongly in February, according to the latest batch of PMIs, published today. Indeed, the PMIs of nearly all the major advanced and emerging economies... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still taking wait and see approach Although core inflation is dangerously low and wage growth anaemic, the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% can be justified on the recent improvement in the activity... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed & EMs: Nothing to see here… The lack of any meaningful reaction in EM currency markets to increased speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates this month appears to reflect three factors: a growing recognition by... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the recent surge in global growth? The striking pick-up in world GDP growth since early last year is partly due to China’s policy stimulus and the stabilisation of oil prices, but it also reflects the recovery from the financial crisis... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Feb.), Income & Spending (Jan.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in February suggests that the factory sector is experiencing a resurgence after the weakness over the past couple of years. It also suggests that GDP growth is... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs are not all good news for commodities Both the official and unofficial February manufacturing PMIs for China surprised on the upside. However, much of the growth was driven by higher export orders, which we think are unlikely to be... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are high valuations the harbinger of a collapse in asset prices? 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017 Preview The more rapid improvement in the public finances than anticipated in the Autumn Statement, should give the Chancellor a borrowing windfall. However, the recent strength in the economy means that... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities hold on to their gains, despite uncertainty Most commodity prices traded in a narrow range last month, in the absence of clarity on developments in China (owing to the Lunar New Year Holiday) and on US policy direction. That said, the price of... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Mortgage rates and applications for refinance were essentially unchanged in February, while the drop in home purchase applications likely reflects an unwinding of the jump in mortgage demand which... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Win or lose, populists will have a big impact on policy There is a significant chance of populist, eurosceptic parties entering government in Italy. While populists’ chances in Germany, France and the Netherlands are more limited, they may nevertheless... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
