Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) The recent strength in house prices shows no signs of losing steam, with another strong gain in January according to the CoreLogic measure. With housing demand holding up even in the face of higher... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM equities stand out from the crowd Recent market movements have left the valuations of many assets looking stretched. But emerging market (EM) equities are an exception – their valuations still look low relative to those of EM bonds... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys point to a strong Q1 Survey data for February suggest that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q1 following two healthy quarterly gains of 0.4% in the second half of last year. After February’s rise, the PMI pointed to an... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The 0.9% q/q fall in GDP in Q4 is the eighth consecutive quarter that Brazil’s economy has contracted but it should also be the last in this cycle. Indeed, not only do we expect the economy to return... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank’s bond purchases are not backdoor QE The recent rise in the Turkish central bank’s holdings of government debt doesn’t appear to be the backdoor effort to ease monetary policy that some fear. Even so, the concerns this has raised... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) House price growth on the Halifax index is once again cooling. And while activity seems to have picked up, the dip in real earnings growth and already high prices will keep house price inflation on a... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The final estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with rising energy inflation now weighing on households’ real income growth, we expect the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy contracts, but worst now behind us Figures released today confirmed that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. But the underlying figures support our view that growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Feb.) The rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month suggests that the People’s Bank purchased foreign exchange in February and that capital outflows stalled. But the picture is murkier than usual... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The fall in Russian inflation, which reached a five-year low of 4.6% y/y last month, has further to run and we think the headline rate will reach the central bank’s target by mid-year. Falling... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor added to other evidence that the hit to real consumer spending growth from higher inflation is now starting to materialise. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo Olympics unlikely to provide major boost to economy Public construction activity for the 2020 Olympic Games should pick up next year, providing a boost to growth. However, the impact on aggregate economic activity will be modest. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA remains more optimistic than most The statement released after the Reserve Bank of Australia today left interest rates at 1.5% remained fairly balanced, but recent speeches have made it clear that the RBA doesn’t intend to cut... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is a Universal Basic Income feasible? The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention in recent weeks. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
