Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) While employment rose by a moderate 15,300 in February, the bigger story was the massive 105,100 jump in full-time work, extending the run of better quality jobs lately. That adds to the evidence the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to accelerate pace of policy tightening After the Fed’s co-ordinated attempts to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, another 25 basis point hike is fully priced into... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze? While the Spring Budget has generated a lot of political controversy, it was a fairly dull affair from a macroeconomic perspective. Even if the policy to raise National Insurance Contributions on the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February will erase any lingering doubts that the Fed might not hike interest rates next week. It will also be greeted with a cheer from the White House. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Soaring copper stocks reflect waning investor optimism The big story this month is an unexpected surge in LME copper stocks, which appears to be related to investors closing long positions in the futures market. At the same time, China’s exchange stocks... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) We wouldn’t make too much of January’s rebound in industrial production. This is, after all, a volatile series. But it supports other evidence that the impact of demonetisation has started to wane. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian headline inflation in February, to 4.8% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in January, was broad-based and reinforces the case for further significant monetary easing over... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong? ECB President Mario Draghi last week reiterated the plan to buy assets throughout this year and keep interest rates at or below current levels for an extended period. But he also explained that... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to prove too strong a headwind for gold prices After rising for most of February, gold prices have slumped in recent days, falling below the $1,200 per ounce mark, on expectations that the Fed will press ahead with a rate hike next week. We expect... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Feb.) The value of investment in UK commercial property markets rose in February. What’s more, domestic institutions are beginning to dip their toes into the water, and demand from overseas investors has... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Has the stability in oil prices come to an end? A return to more normal levels of volatility in oil prices seems likely over the next few months as investors question the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts. However, we still expect prices to... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening In his annual outing before the press at the National People’s Congress today, People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a strong case that policy support for the renminbi can be sustained in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Recovery in demand loses steam The recovery in mortgage approvals and transactions saw steady progress in January. But with surveys implying that the recovery in buyer enquiries has stalled, that recovery may not persist for long... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Asian currencies? Improving export prospects, healthy external positions and easing concerns about a large devaluation of the renminbi mean Asian currencies should hold up relatively well over the coming year even if... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.) Today’s deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ “Theme Days” suggest that the pound’s post-referendum slide is helping growth to become more balanced. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates on hold, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold once again at 4.25% and, while the economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months, stubbornly above-target inflation means the next move in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
