Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the Saudi credit slowdown? The sharp slowdown in credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to reach a trough soon. However, as we explain in this Watch, a weak economic outlook and higher interest rates mean that lending growth... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unfazed by the Fed Investors are now united in the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, but we doubt that central banks in the emerging world will necessarily follow suit. Indeed, in several major... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the markets handle faster Fed tightening? The strong US Employment Report for February has all but sealed the deal for an interest rate rise at this week’s FOMC meeting. Risky asset markets seem relatively unfazed by the prospect, given how... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Drop in mortgage rates will prove temporary Strong employment growth and an expectation that the Fed will hike interest rates at its March meeting have pushed up Treasury yields, meaning that the recent drop in mortgage rates will be short... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost The PVV’s declining support suggests that is now even less likely to govern after the Dutch election. But the eventual governing parties will still respond to the populists by loosening fiscal policy. 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) A higher energy import bill caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen even further in January, taking it to around 4.2% of GDP. As a result, the lira remains one of the most vulnerable EM... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia and three big global uncertainties An easing in economic growth in China coupled with the downside risks to Australia posed by the potential policies of President Trump will mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t follow the US... 12th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month The Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are all but certain to push back the date of notification to the end of the month. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy abroad rather than... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor enthusiasm on the wane It has been a disappointing week for commodity prices, against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and the likelihood of an imminent rate hike in the US. The strong US employment report on Friday removed... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export rebound not just a commodity price story EM export growth continued its strong start to the year buoyed in equal parts by the recovery in commodity prices after their precipitous falls a year previously and an improvement in underlying... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A positive outlook for Copenhagen retail rents The sharp rise in prime Copenhagen retail rents is difficult to square with national consumer sector trends. But it does seem to reflect Copenhagen’s relatively strong housing recovery and a decent... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Norges Bank respond to falling inflation? We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Residential investment still boosting economy Residential housing investment rebounded in the final quarter of last year and looks set to grow at an even faster pace this quarter, thanks to a surge in housing construction. While that will provide... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
