Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget does little to change consumer outlook The measures announced in yesterday’s Spring Budget amounted to little and the big picture is still that fiscal austerity will weigh on households’ spending power over the next few years. Meanwhile... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc The Swiss National Bank will reiterate after its meeting on 16th March that it remains fully prepared to act to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Although... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth The ECB today reiterated its commitment to buying assets throughout this year and keeping interest rates at current or lower levels for an extended period. While the Bank believes that downside risks... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bond markets still underestimating Fed risks Emerging market (EM) assets have fared quite well over the past month, despite investors expecting the Fed’s next hike to arrive sooner than they did previously. But we doubt that the resilience of... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can rising interest rates boost the housing inventory? Low interest rates help to explain the rising the number of vacant homes and the steady fall in the housing inventory in recent years. Rebuilding the inventory will take time, but higher interest... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation rose to a seven-year high of 4.9% y/y in February, from 4.7% y/y in January, and, despite the recent rally in the peso, we suspect this will be enough to convince the central bank to... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Macri fix Argentina’s fiscal mess? With legislative elections due in October, progress in narrowing Argentina’s bulging budget deficit will be slow this year and we expect only a modest fiscal squeeze in 2018-19. More fundamentally... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Softer data to keep the hawks at bay It may not be long before one or two Monetary Policy Committee members vote for a rise in Bank Rate. But with signs that the economic data have taken a bit of a softer turn since February’s Inflation... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we believe the upbeat French business surveys? The positive message from France’s business surveys suggests that economic growth will accelerate sharply in the coming months. But they probably overstated growth again in Q1, while political fears... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be cut soon despite strong economy Ahead of the Central Bank of Iceland’s meeting next week, today’s data revealed that Icelandic GDP expanded by a strong 2.6% in Q4. Despite the strength of the economy, the recent appreciation of the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Bank lending in China held up better than expected last month but at the expense of other forms of credit, which have become less attractive following the recent rise in market interest rates. 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) Today’s survey suggests that the recovery in housing market demand has petered out. Looking ahead, with prices already very high and real wage growth slowing, a resurgence in price growth is looking... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
