Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) & Chile CPI (Feb.) The small 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in January is partly payback for a 2.3% m/m surge in December, and we think the recovery should resume over the coming months. Elsewhere, the... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well China’s commodity import volumes remained strong in February, despite generally higher prices. However, we are reluctant to read too much into the data given the usual seasonal distortions. 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production, French Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reversed December’s fall and provided a solid start to Q1. But so far, hard data on Germany and elsewhere in the euro-zone suggest that growth will not... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Feb.) Switzerland’s consumer prices data for February revealed that prices are finally rising again. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year, underlying price pressures are set to remain subdued. 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa grants crisis: Edging towards the cliff edge The looming shutdown of South Africa’s social grant system could temporarily cut consumption by about 0.4%-pts of GDP per month. Policymakers will probably be able to fudge a last-minute deal to keep... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth in January provides further evidence that the economic recovery from last year’s slump is underway. But even so, we think most analysts are... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) & Current Account (Jan.) Revised data show that GDP grew slightly more last quarter than initially reported. We expect the economy to expand by a steady 1% this year but to slow next year as rising prices undermine households... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Calm before another Treasury market storm? The absence of a further sell-off in the US Treasury market so far this year has called into question our forecast that the 10-year yield will rise by a percentage point during the remainder of 2017... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the immigration crackdown hit economic growth? President Donald Trump’s revised travel ban will have little impact on the wider economy. But his plans for a broader crackdown on immigration, which also include building a wall on the Mexican border... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget at 12.30pm tomorrow and to provide some instant context. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in January to its highest level in almost five years appears to have been partly due to distortions caused by the earlier than normal Chinese New Year Holiday... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound’s latest drop not a sign of Brexit panic The latest fall in the pound has reflected stronger growth overseas and falling expectations for UK inflation rather increased fears of Brexit damage. Indeed, it could help to cushion the blow of the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The rebound in merchandise export volumes in January, led by non-energy trade, is encouraging and broadly consistent with the recent pick-up in external business activity indicators. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
