UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prices consolidate at a higher level The prices of some industrial metals eased back in February, but the bigger picture is that they broadly held on to the gains made in January. A combination of optimism about demand, notably in the US... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in inflation expectations won’t upend ECB’s plans The recent strength of activity surveys, as well as increases in headline inflation and inflation expectations, are all good news for the ECB. But for now, we doubt that this will be enough to sway... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do high valuations signal a crash in asset prices? The valuations of many assets now look stretched in a historical context. For example, the price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now far above its very long-run average, and the spreads of... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack The underperformance of Treasuries is likely to continue The gap between the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US and the UK has grown to its largest level in more than thirty years. Even so, we continue to forecast that it will get bigger. 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Stockholm CBD offices still a good pick? Robust economic growth and a limited supply pipeline will see Stockholm prime office rents record further gains on top of 2016’s surge. And although a hawkish turn from the Riksbank later in the year... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4), Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) Retail sales fell again in January and quarterly growth is likely to be weak in Q1. While Italy’s economy slowed in Q4, the PMI points to a pick-up this quarter. 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Feb.) February’s Markit/CIPS services survey adds to other evidence that suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum in the first quarter. And there are a number of headwinds that are likely to... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Jan.) Both industrial production and services output in Sweden rose at a decent pace in January. And with surveys pointing to further gains, the Swedish economy is set for another strong quarter in Q1 and... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 10.1%, probably marks the peak this year, but the headline rate will remain far above the central bank’s target. Despite the dire inflation outlook, the... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Low labour mobility limiting wage gains The national accounts data show that wage growth has slowed in recent quarters even as the labour market has continued to tighten. With the lifetime employment model preventing employees from... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small decline in consumer confidence in February is not particularly worrying as sentiment had reached a multi-year high in January. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have been stable... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
