Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The European Commission recently released new forecasts agreeing with our view that the peripheral economies will miss their fiscal deficit targets again this year. While bond yields dropped back in... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics more important than politics for US equities The fate of the US stock market tends to be determined by economics rather than by politics. As a result, it should not be surprising that shareholders have shrugged off both Trump’s recent spat with... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stronger in Q4, consensus too bearish on 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy strengthened in the final quarter of 2016 as the drag from fiscal austerity eased. Headline GDP growth is likely to slow sharply in the first half of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year distortions drag inflation down Following a spike in January to a near-three-year high, consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen last month to a six-month low. This should be the nadir for inflation this year. Looking ahead... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Jan.) The latest activity data for Chile suggest that the economy rebounded from Q4’s slump in January, but with a strike at a major mine set to hit copper output in February, we suspect that growth is... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of strong global growth continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that the strong start to the year continued in February. The global composite PMI remained close to a three-year high and is consistent with world GDP growth of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Recent fall in gilt yields could prove short lived We think that the recent fall in gilt yields – which appears to partly reflect lower Bank Rate expectations – has been overdone. While economic data has taken a slight turn for the worse, we remain... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greece GDP (Q4) Q4’s sharper-than-anticipated drop in Greek GDP is clearly very bad news. While Prime Minister Tsipras claims that the economy is now poised to recover, the business surveys suggest otherwise. This... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress suggest policymakers feel less urgency to support growth than a year ago and are instead attempting to address credit risks by tightening monetary... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of PMI data suggests that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have continued to strengthen, supporting our view that growth may be a little stronger than most expect this year. 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.4% m/m rise in retail sales in January was a welcome sight following the outright fall in sales in December, but it doesn’t change the bigger picture that with wage growth likely to remain close... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: How serious is the threat of Scottish independence? Renewed calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, and the House of Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are stumbling blocks to Theresa May’s Brexit plans, but we doubt that either... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices brace themselves for Fed tightening The big news this week was the ratcheting up of expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Fed, which weighed on most commodity prices. That said, the prices of US grains and soybeans rose, on... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
